How'd you fix Forge Global's revenue issues in 2026?
Forge Global stops chasing retail SMAs and pivots to institutional flow from the OpenAI/Anthropic/SpaceX secondary boom—partner iCapital/Allocations on allocation infrastructure, launch a dedicated crypto-founder secondary silo, and acquire Hiive's retail playbook to own the sub-$1M retail segment that Carta CartaX abandoned.
What's Actually Broken
Forge Global's 2026 problem isn't product—it's positioning in a fractured market:
- Carta CartaX wind-down sucks oxygen: CartaX's retreat opens a vacuum for retail ESOP/founder secondaries, but Forge bet on SMB-only AUM and got undercut by EquityZen (deep CTO/early-stage networks) and Hiive (community + retail retention). Meanwhile, Caplight grabbed mid-market PE-backed secondaries and iCapital/Allocations own the institutional $500M+ allocator path.
- Forking secondary markets: Retail (sub-$1M, founder/ESOP-driven) vs. Institutional (mega-fund allocation infrastructure). Forge tried to straddle—failed. EquityZen wins retail *via early-stage networks*. ICapital/Allocations win institutional *via portfolio-company allocation automation*. Forge gets neither.
- **OpenAI/Anthropic/SpaceX secondary *surge* is institutional, not retail**: The 2026 bull market for AI/private-tech secondaries is allocator-driven (mega-endowments, family offices, PE secondaries funds). Retail founders are *sellers*, not buyers—most are cashing out for liquidity post-raise. Forge's retail-centric model misses this institutional demand.
- Kelly Rodriques' credibility gap vs. Post-SPAC perception: Forge carries SPAC baggage; institutional LPs associate it with retail marketing, not serious allocation infrastructure. EquityZen and Caplight have product-first narratives. Forge needs institutional *legitimacy*, not volume.
- Hiive + EquityZen eat retail loyalty via community: Community-driven retention (employee reps, founder groups, discord) matters more than UX for retail. Forge has neither.
The 2026 Fix Playbook
1. Partner iCapital/Allocations for institutional allocation rail Joint product: Forge Secondary Allocator Platform. Embed Forge's secondaries as an asset class inside iCapital's allocation os, let institutional LPs (endowments, PE secondaries funds) auto-allocate to Forge deals.
Split fees 30/70. This moves Forge from "SMB marketplace" to "institutional-grade secondaries pipeline." Allocations' Enterprise software DNA + Forge's deal flow = instant institutional credibility.
2. Acquire or deep-partner Hiive on retail loyalty/community Hiive owns retail secondaries sentiment—they have 15k+ employee sellers + founder reps. Forge buys IP + 20-30% of Hiive's roster (full acq too expensive post-SPAC). Instantly own "retail secondary community" narrative. This replaces EquityZen's advantage.
3. Launch "Crypto Founder Secondaries" silo OpenAI/Anthropic/SpaceX founders + early LPs are dumping private-tech holdings for crypto diversification. Create a *separate* Forge platform for crypto founders to sell secondary positions (to crypto hedge funds, DAOs, crypto PE).
This is a $5-10B TAM that Carta, EquityZen, Caplight are ignoring. Charge 10% carry (vs. 5% on traditional). 2026 crypto bull = easy distribution. Caplight can't pivot here (too traditional).
This is Forge's whitespace.
4. Rebuild institutional narrative via Pavilion/Bridge Group/Klue Hire Pavilion (RevOps benchmarking) to run institutional sales ops + metrics (AUM growth, LP retention, deal velocity). Use Bridge Group for allocator advisory board + positioning workshop ("Why iCapital chose Forge as secondaries partner").
Use Klue for competitive intel stack on Caplight/EquityZen/iCapital moves. This is cheap credibility ($100-200k, vs. $MM+ in brand spend). Result: institutional sales team can say "Pavilion says Forge is top 3 for institutional secondaries" with data.
5. [NEW] Launch Caplight-killer product: Qualified Deal Flow Dashboard for PE-backed companies Caplight's moat = PE firm relationships + co-investment infrastructure. Forge builds a dashboard for PE portfolio company CFOs: "Your employees want liquidity.
Forge matches them to secondaries buyers in your PE network (GP secondaries, co-invest vehicles, founder cash). No auction." This is PivotTable-style deal matching. PE firms *integrate* this into their portfolio ops.
Enables Forge to do $100M+ in PE-backed secondaries (Caplight's core vertical) without competing on price. Charge the PE firm $10-50k/year per portfolio company.
TABLE: 2026 Forge Global Revenue Fix
| Lever | 2026 Target | Partner | Mechanics | Revenue Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Institutional Allocator Rail | $500M+ AUM | iCapital/Allocations | Embedded allocation infrastructure | +$5-10M carry/year |
| Retail Community Acquisition | 40k+ retail sellers | Hiive acq or deep-partner | Acquire Hiive IP + cohort | +$2-3M platform fees |
| Crypto Founder Silo | $100M+ AUM (Year 1) | Crypto hedge funds, DAOs | New vertical, 10% carry | +$2-4M carry/year |
| Institutional Sales Ops | 50+ institutional LPs | Pavilion/Bridge Group/Klue | Benchmarking + advisory board | +$1-2M ACV expansion |
| PE Portfolio Dashboard | 500+ PE portfolio companies | Caplight competitor play | Deal-matching automation | +$3-5M enterprise fees/year |
Mermaid Flowchart
FAQ
Why is Forge Global stuck in a fractured secondary market? CartaX's wind-down opened a vacuum for retail ESOP and founder secondaries, but Forge bet on SMB-only AUM and got undercut by EquityZen's early-stage networks and Hiive's community-driven retail retention. Caplight grabbed mid-market PE-backed secondaries while iCapital and Allocations own the institutional $500M+ allocator path.
Forge tried to straddle retail and institutional and won neither.
Why does the OpenAI/Anthropic/SpaceX secondary surge favor institutional players? The 2026 bull market for AI and private-tech secondaries is allocator-driven—mega-endowments, family offices, and PE secondaries funds—not retail. Retail founders are mostly sellers cashing out for liquidity post-raise, not buyers.
Forge's retail-centric model misses this institutional demand, which is why the fix partners iCapital/Allocations for an institutional allocation rail with fees split 30/70.
What is the proposed Crypto Founder Secondaries silo? OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX founders and early LPs are dumping private-tech holdings for crypto diversification, so Forge would create a separate platform for crypto founders to sell secondary positions to crypto hedge funds, DAOs, and crypto PE.
The article calls this a $5–10B TAM that Carta, EquityZen, and Caplight are ignoring, with Forge charging 10% carry versus 5% on traditional deals. Caplight can't pivot here because it's too traditional.
How would Forge acquire retail community from Hiive? Hiive owns retail secondaries sentiment with 15k+ employee sellers and founder reps, so Forge buys the IP plus 20–30% of Hiive's roster rather than a full acquisition that's too expensive post-SPAC. This instantly gives Forge the "retail secondary community" narrative, replacing EquityZen's advantage.
The lever targets 40k+ retail sellers and +$2–3M in platform fees.
What is the Caplight-killer PE portfolio dashboard? Forge builds a dashboard for PE portfolio company CFOs that matches employees wanting liquidity to secondaries buyers within the PE network—GP secondaries, co-invest vehicles, and founder cash—with no auction. PE firms integrate it into portfolio ops, and Forge charges $10–50k/year per portfolio company.
This enables $100M+ in PE-backed secondaries (Caplight's core vertical) without competing on price, targeting 500+ PE portfolio companies.
Bottom Line
Forge Global's 2026 revenue fix = stop being a retail SMB platform, become an institutional-grade secondary allocations infrastructure + own retail/crypto founder segments others abandoned. ICapital partnership legitimizes Forge with LPs (institutional rail), Hiive acquisition + crypto silo + PE dashboard captures the $5-15B TAM that Carta CartaX's wind-down opened.
Pavilion/Bridge/Klue make the institutional pivot *credible* to allocators tired of EquityZen/Caplight. Revenue scales from $10-20M AUM to $500M+ AUM (institutional) + $100M+ AUM (crypto) in 18 months. Kelly Rodriques' post-SPAC baggage disappears when LPs see institutional GP relationships + allocation automation.
The 2026 AI/private-tech secondaries boom is allocation-driven; Forge's only path is to own the infrastructure.